Vulnerability and Drought Risk Assessment for Baringo county livelihoods

Abstract

This study was undertaken in arid and semi-arid county of Baringo which is prone to perennial droughts, with the majority of its population affected by the recurrent droughts and high poverty levels which impacts negatively to the food security in the livelihoods. The primary objective of this research is to assess drought risk and the rainfall performance during the drought period. The drought assessment was based on known drought periods, of 2009. Meteorological validation using NOAA-AVRHR data was used to determine the rainfall variation over the long term average. The data were obtained from NOAA-Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and processed with ESRI software. The population vulnerability was processed using poverty rates, population density, and livelihoods. An analytical hierarchy process criterion was used in determining vulnerability using the three socioeconomic variables. The drought assessment was determined using the normalized difference drought Index (NDDI) a combination of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)  and the normalized difference water index (NDWI). The results show that the poverty prevalence is high in marginal and pastoral livelihoods. Approximately 27.87% of the marginal livelihood and 25.62% pastoral livelihood are highly vulnerable. The livelihood drought risk analysis indicates that 49.58% of the marginal livelihood and 46.43% of pastoral livelihood to be at risk due to drought hazard. In conclusion, marginal, pastoral, and agro-pastoral livelihoods are under serious drought risk with its population capacities undermined by high poverty rates, in this respect government should promote poverty reduction projects and improved market infrastructure.